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#241
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Keep in mind though that this is our last mislynch till we lose, so I'd rather just go straight for Kennedy. |
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#242
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#243
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#244
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It was vaguely proposed no one has said that it is.
working with the 9/3/1 split would mean it's now a 7/3/1 split. A mislynch and a mafia night kill would take it to 5/3/1 or 6 non mafia to 3 mafia. These are all hypothetical numbers but they are probably in the right ball park and so we are actually pretty far off a ML. You calling this a MYLO is just plain wrong, though I still think you are telling nub town. I don't support a balln lynch because: 1. He's probably just a mouthy townie 2. If mafia have a power that can mess with reports or if there are sanity issues then we're going to end up lynching our cop. Personally I think there could well be a framer. Let's say cop A is town and cop B is maf. The maf uses their power on blln to make him appear scum to reports, cop A finds a guilty report, cop B knows he has been framed so files a town report, we lynch blln, then we find he flips town, we then lynch cop A. If we have more two mislynches in a row and no cop we might not have lost the game at that point, but it's pretty much gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg I'm more open to a smush lynch due to lurkyness. I think that if one of the maf is kennedy/SSD, who is all up in town's grill, then at least one more of them is lurking in the shadows. Regardless we've got a while before we need to do anything, so let's just hear everyone's thoughts on the game so far. Lurking is bad for town, so don't do it. |
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#245
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Sorry, I have been lurking. My hearts just not in this game + the Kennedy and SSD play was a really good one and I can't get a great read on it (and its defined this game to date).
I don't think we should lynch Ball'n. Right now, Ball'n + kennedy + SSD are safe from being killed because it would be stupid as hell for Mafia to kill the primary suspects and give town all that info. Let's get another wave of reports and then decide. The idea that one of the cops got lawyered is silly. Out of those that are left, I'm getting town reads from Rib. [Y] isn't being his usual bull dog itself which raises suspicions. Selfish lover also has done nothing to date. |
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#246
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even i'm more active holy **** when does that happen, o hi im a zombie now (not really)
im a ghost and im sexing sage's ghost
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#247
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Posting is good. Let's try that.
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#248
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SSD got a report telling him ballin is innocent and Kennedy got one saying ballin is guilty, then SSD says that lynching ballin would give us nothing because in case he is innocent kennedy could claim that there is a framer (seems legit) and in case of ballin flipping mafia then he could say there is a lawyer (this part doesnt make sense). So basically what you are saying is that if ballin flips mafia there is a lawyer because your investigation showed him innocent but what about kennedy? Wouldnt that make him mafia too from your point of view? Why didnt you point that out? There is the option of kennedy bussing ballin but i dont see that as really useful considering SSD claimed inno before kennedy. Other stuff to note: Kennedy still hasnt answered the second part of SSD's post. Ballin is now on me only because I FOSd him. My internet will be bad for the next few days but ill try and keep up to date. |
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#249
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The fact is that SSD is right, lynching blln doesn't give us any real info, and was pretty much the reason I didn't want it being said who they were investigating, because if the mafia has anything that ****s with a cop, they didn't need to guess on who to put it on. DDP silently voting to lynch blln looks incredibly scummy to right now. Id say about all we know right now is that if we lynch a framer, SSD is a fake cop 99% sure, becasue if blln was town he would have been framed, and if hes mafia he would have come up mafia. Im voting for smush based on gut. If you dont think we should lynch smush, then persuade me. Maybe we can actually get some goddamn discussion going on in this ****ing game. |
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#250
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Looking it up on the mafia scum wiki: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=FBI_Agent TBH it doesn't seem likely that we would have one of those, though if he is telling the truth it does give us our third party, though it begs the question where the second night kill went (there would be 1 mafia kill and one serial killer kill). Perhaps Horror just used the name, but the role means something different? As I've said before I think Kennedy is marginally the scummier of the two, but I've already explained the rationale for not lynching the cops or blln. My personal FoS right now is Selfish just for the massive lurk, if he'd post some detailed thoughts it would make me feel a lot better about him. I also agree that FU doesn't seem to be his normal hyper-agressive self. Still two more days left though, so I'm not voting yet in case we get another BW. |
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#251
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I've just thought of another lead. The people that are scummy from D1 are those that voted for Sage after he claimed, the mafia would know he wasn't one of them so when he claimed they knew the claim was legit, and would BW that vote to push it through so that they got a D1 tracker lynch.
As far as I can tell the only person that did this was Flexio, who switched and pushed it through, what do you all think? If we don't lynch him I think we should at least get cop reports on him. |
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#252
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I hate how kennedy was like hey my role is specifically called fbi agent and then hasn't said anything since though. :/ Just because there was only 1 kill last night doesn't mean there isnt a killer though, they, or the maf, could have come up against a protected player, so can't rule it out. But baring further clarification from kennedy that his actual role IS only to find a killer, im going to assume otherwise based on his claim. As for selfish, iirc, thats pretty much how he has played in previous games as town, so it isnt doing anything other than pissing me off currently. Quote:
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#253
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Hey guys I'm really sorry about my inactivity. **** has been crazy busy yo.
My role is the Town FBI Agent. I've confirmed with Horror that I cannot post my role PM, but it makes no mention of Serial Killer; the way the role is described is what I would expect a cop role PM to be, so I think this was Horror's way of having two cops in the game who don't directly CC each other. Right now I think one of us has a sanity issue. SSD's play this game is way different from how it's been in the past; he's much more passive and reasonable and appears to be worried about ****ing up, which imo are towntells based on his typical scum aggression. I don't really want to lynch Balln. I think cops probably shouldn't have claimed until later, and I find it really unlikely that we'd have two sane cops and a tracker - it's also pretty unlikely that we'd have both a cop and a tracker without there being some kind of twist - that's a really powerful combination - and I think the sanity issue is that twist. I specifically want to hear a lot from FU right now, particularly regarding his reads on everybody. He had a good point that I'd be unlikely to sacrifice myself to lynch Balln, but hasn't really followed it up with much more. |
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#254
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it's inconsequential atm. i was merely pointing out that lynching balln does not actually tell us anything about my alignment or kennedy's alignment, regardless of who i think is mafia or who he thinks is mafia. therefore it's silly to want to lynch balln in order to attempt to get said information about my and kennedy's alignments. i've been pretty passive because honestly i just can't really be assed to properly run through all the possible scenarios in my head. i guess i didn't really think through what a closed setup would mean, and it's throwing me off my game severely. all i know is that if i had to vote, i'd want to lynch DDP. boldchars Last edited by sunshineduck; 05-05-2012 at 06:59 PM. |
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#255
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#256
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Null tell on DDP, who is playing the expected reserved early game. Andy is scummy as usual but it's the weird, pro-town kind of scummy we've seen in the past. Balln is noob-towntelling. Normal towntells from MJ. And nothing for the absentee Selfish Lover and Smushface.
Now it gets interesting. After the wifom fodder that were the cop claims, we have this post by Kennedy. The relevant line is: Quote:
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#257
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Disregard the above accidental unfinished post. More to follow.
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#258
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Null tell on DDP, who is playing the expected reserved early game. Andy is scummy as usual but it's the weird, pro-town kind of scummy we've seen in the past. Balln is noob-towntelling. Normal towntells from MJ. And nothing for the absentee Selfish Lover and Smushface.
Now it gets interesting. First of all, Rib the towntell generator. All of his posts have seemed pro-town, until that D2 post. His reasoning for not lynching balln is shaky at best (as opposed to that of SSD), and his reasoning for not lynching a cop is bad. First of all, it's just silly to not lynch a cop just because we might lynch wrong. Second, as long as they're in the open they can't do much to manipulate town, we should farm "legitimate" reports until we lynch a cop at lylo? What about that framer you say you personally believe to exist? Or the potential godfather? Miller? Could be a tell, but will give him benefit of the doubt for now. After the wifom fodder that were the cop claims, we have this post by Kennedy. The relevant line is: Quote:
Then I suggested cops check the same person. Kennedy jumped on the idea and SSD passively went along with his suggestion. Surely Kennedy, being as experienced as he is, would have thought of report modifiers and how stupid it was to broadcast cop checks to the mafia. MJ even posted about it, but the objections never came. After that, I had hoped one of them, realizing this, would check someone besides balln, but nope. So we end up with two useless reports on a noob-telling player. We lynch a cop. I'm voting Kennedy. |
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#259
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I think i missed the part where they both agree to investigate ballin. Can someone point it out to me, it would be a huge deal since no cop should out who they investigate that night especially in a closed setup.
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#260
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Fu, you softpushed me earlier and then seemed surprised when I reacted to it, saying it was just pressure. Now you're pushing me based on outing early reads and a line of thought regarding report modifiers based on a presumption of me putting any value into the objective results rather than the comparison between mine and SSD's. I was trying to ascertain sanity, and I find it highly unlikely that we'd have both report modifiers and sanity issues with investigative roles. If report modifiers were in play then SSD and I would have gotten the same report on Balln, and we would gain just as much information from that as we would from having opposite reports. This is beneath you. Last edited by Kennedy; 05-03-2012 at 11:50 PM. Reason: ****ed up a quote |
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#261
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Actually Kennedy you're wrong, I explained it here:
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FU I don't think my logic for not lynching between cops is bad. We can still get legitimate reports because once we find the real cop we will know which one is telling the truth, if it turns out that Kennedy is the real cop and SSD is mafia then we know for sure that mafia has a framer (or blln is miller). I don't think it's a sensible decision to lose another power role this early. Also this is my logic for not lynching blln: I think he's town His death doesn't really tell us anything about the cop reports bearing in mind how maf could mess with them (quoted above). What's faulty about that? The more I look at what people have highlighted about him, his lack of recent posting and the late vote switch to push the Sage lynch after he'd claimed; the more I think Flexio would be a good lynch, we can also then look at the link between him and Kennedy, if Flex is maf then I think Kennedy is a pretty safe bet for a lynch. |
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#262
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Kennedy(bolded to make sure I get your attention), explain how checking the same person would be an accurate sanity checker? Also answer my question on your theories of evil that you had before he was killed. |
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#263
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Kennedy, I know you were probably just fixing the quote tags like you put in your post, but PLEASE no editing. Make a new post explaining everything and it'll be just the same.
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#264
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So everyone knows, I probably won't be on when deadline hits on Saturday morning, as my little brother has an all day karate tournament that we're going to. I'll post the flip and death scene Saturday night, but rest assured that no votes will be counted after the deadline. Discussion can continue during twilight (the period between a lynch/no lynch and when the mod posts the flip and death scene).
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#265
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I think Kennedy's claim is fake.
I'm getting town reads from Ball'n, he's new and if he was mafia, he wouldn't be putting himself out with jokes and stuff to draw attention to himself, it's too hard to fake being nonchalant. Quote:
SSD's argument from page 5 still stands: Quote:
We either have: 1) One of them is mafia and lying 2) One of them got lawyered or is insane (I don't really understand the "insane" role). The way lawyer usually works is that you lawyer for the person that's being investigated, NOT the other way around (because it would be very underpowered, it would require the mafia to know who the cop was and then target that specific person, it would be an almost useless role). AKA it would make sense if they both got guilty reads on Ball'n but it doesn't make sense that they got different results so Kennedy's guilty on Ball'n makes 0 sense. Plus, we don't even know if a laywer role exists in this setup. I think Ball'n is innocent and Kennedy is playing us. Another way to think about is, if Kennedy was mafia, this would be a very ballsy kennedy-esque move but if he was a cop, this move makes no sense. It's not well thought out, it's not logical, and it doesn't abide by standard rules of the game. I also bought FU's argument earlier on this page. It was a good one. Don't lynch Ball'n. I think we need to decide between Kennedy and Flexio and I'm leaning heavily towards Kennedy. |
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#266
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Are you all unable to understand this (can't be bothered to embed quote):
"Personally I think there could well be a framer. Let's say cop A is town and cop B is maf. The maf uses their power on blln to make him appear scum to reports, cop A finds a guilty report, cop B knows he has been framed so files a town report, we lynch blln, then we find he flips town, we then lynch cop A." The reason a lawyer/framer role could **** with the cops is that if one of the cops is mafia then they will know that person is getting lawyered/framed and therefore they will know their real alignment so they can manufacture their report accordingly. Smush: "I think Ball'n is innocent and Kennedy is playing us. Another way to think about is, if Kennedy was mafia, this would be a very ballsy kennedy-esque move but if he was a cop, this move makes no sense. It's not well thought out, it's not logical, and it doesn't abide by standard rules of the game." Can't you apply this same argument to SSD? I think Kennedy is the scummier of the two, but that right there is poor logic. What I don't understand is what you hope to gain from lynching between cops today rather than, say, tomorrow? They can't influence us if we are suspicious of both of them. We should lynch between them when we are surer, or if we think we might be close to a LYLO situation and we need a hit. Personally I think it's better that we make an informed decision with a high risk lynch and Flexio is a safer option. I'm just wary that we've managed to lynch our own tracker already and the mafia are the only people who know the real cop, so they are the ones able to influence our choice between them and so, all other things being equal, we're probably going to end up lynching the town cop. |
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#267
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Regardless, I think FU is town telling hard in that last post (well, he's playing like normal anyway), and I might not be able to get back on in between now and the deadline, so I'm voting in line with my current thoughts. After all he's done you haven't yet convinced me that Flexio's not scummy.
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#268
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Ah, I got it now. I just don't really see the reason for the Flexio lynch yet.
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#269
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I maintain and reiterate my belief of smush's guilt. That post was just wow. Seemingly all well thought out and logical, but he just completely ignores the flip side of the coin and just dismisses a possibility that doesnt, supposedly, understand. And then, Rib straight forwardly shows him the flip side and gives him a very logical reason to NOT LYNCH BETWEEN THE COPS TODAY and he just dismisses it off hand with a rather stupid statement. There are rather good reasons to support a lynch of flexio, the fact that hes lurking super hard and has he even said anything at all today? But I don't currently think thats enough, when imo, shush is just radiating scum atm.
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#270
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But yea, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWNaR-rxAic&ob=av2n @Rib, I understand your reasoning, I'm just leaning towards Kennedy over SSD. No one else has really been pushing Kennedy other than FU and I think he's town too, so your point of mafia influence isn't really relevant at this point. If it comes to flexio or ball'n though, I'll switch to flexio. Also Kennedy has already been hedgin his bets on this claim, leaving himself a way out. Could be legit, I think he's trying to have his cake and eat it too. |
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#271
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Back, drunkn,m Please post in the voting thread if you haven't already. These lynches are the only chnaces we have to kill mafia please don't waste themm we hardly have any votews.
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#272
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Why does it feel like Im playing a game with just rib... Talk more people, we are down to about 12 hours left and theres been like no discussion on what we are going to do. |
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#273
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If we want to have lynches happen, we must congregate around one person and focus our votes. We need six to lynch and currently the votes are spread out among four people, with 1-2 on each. I think people who start a lynch on somebody should have a more aggressive case in order to convince more people. We need to work together to have lynches happen.
Anyway, I still think we should lynch Ball'n. The only reason I changed on D1 was to not waste the ML by not having enough votes on one person. I already explained that, and I still felt Ball'n was the best choice. My suspicion remains on him and I will vote accordingly, even though it appears there won't be a majority. I also apologize for lurking the past few days. |
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#274
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We have 15 minutes left and SSD, Kennedy, and Selfish have yet to vote, and selfish has yet to speak today. |
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#275
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I really dont see any strong argument against a ballin lynch at the moment, all the other proposed lynches are about feelings too, so ill stick with my day 1 feeling about him. I could switch if you guys all want to go on selfish since he is inactive and is not bringing anything.
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#276
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oh i didn't realize that the deadline was today :|
whatever, i'm ok with an NL as opposed to lynching balln. not sold on a flexio lynch. |
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#277
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I don't think Smush is maf as I strongly think Kennedy is and he wouldn't be suggesting a Kennedy lynch if that was the case. On top of that since I already claimed I can just say that if Smush was maf then he wouldn't be opposed to lynching me because he'd know I was town, and since he isn't aiming for me I just can't see it. I also don't think he thought there was any holes in his post. MJ, I'd suggest you switch to Kennedy or Flexio and then we take it from there. Andy, as for selfish, its really impossible to know anything because he is completely inactive. However if he is not going to vote or participate, hes really of no use. |
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#278
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#279
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#280
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So, I would like the cops to investigate people WITHOUT telling us who, and then in the morning, I want Kennedy to say his report first, since ssd went first this time. That is assuming both of you dont get modkilled for not voting along with the assumed forthcoming modkill of selfish for not participating at all in this day period.
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