Mafia in Hell, Michigan.

[Ribilla]

I'm really sorry I haven't been active, exams start on monday and I'm in full panic mode.

After a very quick scan:

There cannot be 3 mafia or would already have lost. I'm not leading a lynch, since I've been wrong every time. Best candidates look to be DDP, Kennedy or Andy. I'm not sticking my vote because then the mafia have an easy hammer, I'll check back tomorrow morning.

[horrordude0215]

The deadline has passed, and No Lynch has occurred.

It is Now Night Four, which will end on Monday June 3 at 12:00 PST.

[blln4lyf]

Originally Posted by horrordude0215

The deadline has passed, and No Lynch has occurred.

It is Now Night Four, which will end on Monday June 3 at 12:00 PST.

Lol seriously? Lol.

[horrordude0215]

Originally Posted by blln4lyf

Lol seriously? Lol.

I moved the deadline back because no one was participating... announced it a few days ago.

[andy]

Well i guess we know who didnt vote but its also too late to win this game.

[Duck Duck Pwn]

Sorry I've been idle, I'll try to remember about this game

[horrordude0215]

You all wake up in the morning... there were two deaths last night, how many would there be tonight?

You wince as you walk outside, unsure of how many comrades have fallen. To your astonishment, everyone is still there!

No one died Night 4. It is now Day 5, which will end Monday, June 11 at 2:30 PM PST

[Kennedy]

Investigated Diddy Pee. Got a weird rpesque report that I'm not allowed to copy paste but it's basically written like roleplay telling me that all previous reports were meaningless and that I've been "chasing shadows"; DDP is "the one I've been waiting for", etc.

I'm 100% sure that he's the third party and the source of the second kill yesterday.

[Duck Duck Pwn]

hi town loses if you lynch me because maf kills one of you = 2 v 2

[Duck Duck Pwn]

FYI correct play from town is to have andy, smush, and rib claim and lynch one of them. Balln is clear. Kennedy's reports being meaningless seems to imply that his inspection results were random before inspecting me.

I suppose you could lynch one of me and kennedy if you think we both made this **** up, but otherwise it would be stupid to lynch me. Especially from Kennedy's point of view.

[Kennedy]

What's your win condition?

[andy]

I think kennedy is mafia, along with ballin but thats just my thought.

[andy]

The way he went on the third party without even thinking that it would mean game over looks strange for an experienced player.

[Duck Duck Pwn]

I assume for the majority of these calculations that kennedy and balln are clear, largely because I was doing theory stuff before really thinking about if kennedy or balln were mafia or not. I will begin with stating my doubts about kennedy, followed by a bit of a mixed bag with balln, followed by some calculations. Most of these calculations do not rely on kennedy/balln being clear and are pretty general, but some do assume them as clears.

I think it's still within the realm of possibility that kennedy isn't town. He seems to have just played too dumb this game to be town. Perhaps that's because he does not care much about this game, but I think it's more likely, knowing kennedy, that he's doing this on purpose. He has played really really terribly this game and has benefitted from it, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he were actually mafia using that as a way to win. Still, I'm leaning towards him telling the truth. Although his lynching me without thinking about it is kind of suspect, as andy mentioned.

Balln being godfather I find much less likely, but I suppose it's within the realm of possibility. I must say that I despise godfather roles, however, and sincerely hope that is not the case. Balln has played, as I've described before, "weird," but I dunno if it's been scummy. And I doubt that ssd was insane or anything.

As for my win condition, I obviously can't win if I die and the town gives the game to the mafia. And since mafia knows you're a "cop" designed to find me, and balln is a nilla villager, even if there is a doctor/bodyguard left, he's going to die tonight, because now the mafia knows I'm wolf. That is a 2v2 for the town and a guaranteed loss.

I'm a pretty standard wolf, Kennedy. I win by being the last man standing. But I know that the town doesn't want to lose, and it's pretty damn obvious that there are exactly two mafia left, or this game would already be over.

Here are your options:

1. Lynch me

Outcome: 5 people left, 2 mafia 3 village. Mafia knows balln and kennedy's roles. Mafia kills remaining villager due to likelihood of being doctor/bodyguard. Mafia wins.

2. No lynch

Outcome 1: Mafia kills me and I kill a town. Mafia wins.

Outcome 2: Mafia kills a town and I kill a mafia. Town no lynches again the next day. Mafia and I are in a gambit and crossfire that night is extremely likely, as if one of us kills a townie and the other kills the other killer, the other killer wins. Unclear who wins

Outcome 3: Mafia kills a town and I kill a town. It's me and a villager and two mafia. Mafia wins.

Outcome 4: Mafia kills me and I kill a mafia. Town has 3 left and 2 clears. 50/50 Town and Mafia.

3. Lynch one of andy/smush/ribilla

Outcome 1: A mafia is lynched.

Scenario a: Mafia kills a town and I kill a mafia. Town lynches me. Town wins.

Scenario b: Mafia kills me and I kill one of kennedy/balln. 50/50 town and mafia.

Scenario c: Mafia kills me and I kill the non-kennedy/balln town. Town wins

Outcome 2: A town is lynched.

Scenario a: I kill a town. Mafia wins (this isn't happening)

Scenario b: I kill a mafia, mafia kills me. 50/50 town+mafia

Scenario c: I kill a mafia, mafia kills a town. Town is kingmaker in a lynch. Town loses, but last town member gets to choose which of me and mafia wins. 50/50 mafia+me.

I think that covered everything. Might have missed some stuff though. My apologies if I did. I didn't assume any roles blocking kills which probably still exist

So town's not in such a hot position right now. But lynching me is autolose.

Andy/smush/rib, please claim. It's essentially LYLO and if you decide that you wish to lynch a town instead of no lynch, all information should be public.

[Duck Duck Pwn]

Hi my super long posts are back.

[Duck Duck Pwn]

Oops forgot something

Outcome 1 Scenario d: I kill town mafia kills town. Town kingmaker. 50/50 Mafia+me.

[horrordude0215]

tl;dr

There's the wall of text that I've been missing from this game. lol. Hopefully that jumpstarts the activity level... maybe?

[Smushface]

Vanilla town. Still pretty sure Kennedy is mafia because the only other alternative is that he's an incompetent mafia player, which he is not.

[Kennedy]

... I really don't get why everybody seems to be talking about how bad my play this game has been. I think I've done reasonably well, especially since you guys only post once a week so I don't have a lot to work with.

[Duck Duck Pwn]

Andy and ribilla please claim.

Kennedy, which out of andy, ribilla, and smushface do you find to be the most suspicious and why?

[Kennedy]

yeah 'cause I'm gonna let you lead town DDP

[Duck Duck Pwn]

it's a valid question and no one else is doing it.

I stand to benefit from a mafia lynch today

[Duck Duck Pwn]

Originally Posted by horrordude0215

tl;dr

There's the wall of text that I've been missing from this game. lol. Hopefully that jumpstarts the activity level... maybe?

I'm trying D:

[horrordude0215]

Ugh. Can we PLEASE get some more activity here?

[horrordude0215]

Deadline has been moved to tomorrow at 2:00 PM PST.

[Ribilla]

I'm a standard Townie as well.

After reading the thread through and doing some thinking I think I've come up with a fairly decent plan to get mafia, it relies on the following assumptions:

• I'm town - I know this, you don't
  
• Kennedy is town, the way I see it this is actually quite likely now, I don't think there is anyway that mafia could know who the third party was and it doesn't make sense for the mafia to force the third party out into the open where he can help town.
  
• Andy is the Doctor/BG. There has to be a doctor, because at least one kill was prevented last night and I assume DDP has been killing but getting blocked a lot (or do you only have one kill?). Andy is the only one not to claim, and at this point there is not much reason not to claim doctor if you're town, as it doesn't really matter which of the town the mafia kill.
  
• All of Kennedy's previous reports are garbage (as it says in his post).

So let's account for everyone left:

1. DDP - 3rd party
2. Kennedy - assumed FBI Agent
3. Andy - assumed doctor
4. Blln4lyf - ????
7. Ribilla - I know I'm town
13. Smushface - ????

There could be one mafia, but that would seem like I crazy set up, my guess is that there are two mafia: one with some kind of small PR (having a town role blocker doesn't make much sense otherwise) and one Godfather (cannot be night killed, shows up town). It kind of makes sense then that blln is the godfather and Smush is the other mafia. That's the best lead I've got to go on.

Would help a lot if Andy claimed, if he isn't a doctor then I don't know what is happening, or if there is a doctor who claimed vanilla townie then it might be helpful for them to claim now, there is no point lying in a mass claim this late in the game.

[blln4lyf]

I'm simple townie, said this a LONG time ago.

[blln4lyf]

I just don't get why we are to believe Kennedy and DDP. They've been 2 big mafia suspects for a while. Assuming they are telling the truth though, since it seems we are going to make that assumption, I'd vote Andy. However at the point I have no idea if smush or rib are town or mafia.

[andy]

Im plain townie and notice how i wouldnt have had problems in claiming doctor if i was mafia. I still dont see why ballin went on me after ribilla's post which looked like it cleared me. Anyway a ballin lynch is long overdue. I also think ribilla still might be the doc even though he claimed town. I dont think there is a bodyguard considering how it usually involves mafia dying. Lynching DDP at the moment isnt going to help us and another NL will just kill the game.

[blln4lyf]

How did ribs post clear you at all lol.. Cuz he assumed you were a doctor with absolutely no logical reason to assume so? That's in no way a clear. If you really want to go their I've been actually cleared.

A balln lynch is overdue? It went from an almost mislych on me to me getting cleared, how in the world does that make a lynch on me overdue.

Assuming DDP and Kennedy aren't lynching which I still don't get why we are assuming that, based on my knowledge it's smush you or rib as mafia. Rib could just be playing this game very well but I don't see it from him, I've seen it from you the most out of those choices.

I'd rather just lynch Kennedy and take our chances though but I know that won't happen. We are just wildly playing Russian roullette between us 4 excluding the 2 people who have been considered by many over the days to be mafia. Maybe this is exactly what they want?

I voted Andy, you gotta get the votes In soon regardless of your decision or we just lose to a no lynch.

[blln4lyf]

Aren't lying*

[Ribilla]

Originally Posted by blln4lyf

How did ribs post clear you at all lol.. Cuz he assumed you were a doctor with absolutely no logical reason to assume so? That's in no way a clear. If you really want to go their I've been actually cleared.

A balln lynch is overdue? It went from an almost mislych on me to me getting cleared, how in the world does that make a lynch on me overdue.

Assuming DDP and Kennedy aren't lynching which I still don't get why we are assuming that, based on my knowledge it's smush you or rib as mafia. Rib could just be playing this game very well but I don't see it from him, I've seen it from you the most out of those choices.

I'd rather just lynch Kennedy and take our chances though but I know that won't happen. We are just wildly playing Russian roullette between us 4 excluding the 2 people who have been considered by many over the days to be mafia. Maybe this is exactly what they want?

I voted Andy, you gotta get the votes In soon regardless of your decision or we just lose to a no lynch.

We must have a Doc, I assumed it was Andy (though as he says he could have just claimed the doctor, that he didn't is kind of a town move).

You aren't clear blln, because the mafia probably has a godfather character, and since there are probably only two mafia that means half them are coming up positive to reports. Basically the probably of someone being town given a inno report is almost equal to the probability of them being town given no report.

(Let's assume 4 non- maf, 1 GF, one mafia who shows maf)

Probability that a random player is town: 4/6 (= 66%)

Probability that a random player is a town given that we have an inno on them 4/5 (=80%).

Probability that a random player is town given GF and a lawyer and given an inno report: 4/6 (=66%)

The report doesn't mean much at this stage.

I don't know who the doctor is, it isn't me, this wasn't some kind of fancy reaction test; but we have to have one or more people would have been dying.

I know we need to vote soon, I am just wary of giving mafia the hammer; let's get some thoughtful posts from everyone before we rush into anything.

[blln4lyf]

I just assumed since the day was ended early it was told to the people with night decisions nothing would happen at night. The last wave 2 people died right? Even if there was a doctor which I still doubt that their is, 1 would of died.

As for Kennedy/DDP, why do you believe them rib?

[Ribilla]

Originally Posted by blln4lyf

I just assumed since the day was ended early it was told to the people with night decisions nothing would happen at night. The last wave 2 people died right? Even if there was a doctor which I still doubt that their is, 1 would of died.

As for Kennedy/DDP, why do you believe them rib?

I believe DDP because we had two deaths recently and I don't think both of them could be mafia related, it stands to reason that we have a third party. Since no one has CC'd his third party, it pretty much has to be him. I believe Kennedy more now because he correctly called that and mafia don't normally get investigative abilities to call stuff like that with any confidence.

I don't think horror would nullify all night actions because the day ended early, that's kind of stupid and imbalanced. The town could just get every day ending early and mafia wouldn't be able to kill anyone. There has to be some kind of kill blocking role and Doc is the only one that makes sense.

[Ribilla]

Leaving for the night, so I'm going to have to vote now. Please reason your own vote rather than sheeping.

[blln4lyf]

Okay gg mafia win. Hopefully we get another game after this with more action/ran more on schedule(no offense) cuz id love to play again.

[Duck Duck Pwn]

Lack of a doctor makes me think kennedy is clear. It also makes me think that a lawyer/godfather role is incredibly unlikely, as kennedy's inspections prior to now were probably random.

I think balln is village. Luckily there isn't a majority on him, so it looks like another no lynch.

[mjolnir416]

Inactivity is why we cant have nice things.

[[Y]]

lol ribilla

[horrordude0215]

It takes 4 votes to lynch, and there were 3 for balln and 2 for andy, so once again.

No one was Lynched Day 5

It is Now Night 5, which will end on Wednesday June 13th at 6:00 PM.