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Old 11-04-2010, 12:00 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Default Mike's Mafia Diary

This was a diary I recorded as the game progressed in order to have information for later


Pre-game:
Spent the past 8 hours working on a mafia program that will perform linear discriminant analysis on the posts to help decide who was mafia and who wasn’t mafia. I gathered data from all previous posts from last game including length of post, times vote changed, times accused of previous person, times accused of new person, order of vote, etc. I will be using this on the new game in order to figure out who is mafia or not based on the way they post.

Side edit: This also allowed me to judge who I felt would be safe to contact and who wouldn't be.

---

Day 1:

Just got my role as vigilante. That’s pretty cool but I need to start making some alliances. I’ve been watching who is online and the order in which people are going into private messaging. I believe that andy and robin could be mafia as they are going back and forth with pm’s. apa and shmo might be mafia as well. Lamster is pretty sketch too. GGQ appears to be private messaging as well. I’m going to try and make contact with some people soon using a revised screenshot technique (since that’s legal). If people can get around it then they deserve to win tbh. I doubt anyone will though. I am confident I can know whether a screenshot has been photoshopped.

---

Ok just contacted CCN. This is going crappily. We agreed to post screenshots into mumble at the same time. He sent me a picture of a creepy underage kid and I didn’t post anything. We’re both freaked out by one another. Gave CCN my role and he pretended to be mafia in order to judge my reaction. I guess I reacted pretty well considering he now trusts me. Personally I started sweating and was pissed that I couldn’t sleep. Nonetheless, he has now confirmed to me that his role is ninja assassin. This is perfect. With my vigilante powers I can kill the head boss even if CCN can’t. Hopefully he’ll get his clue soon so we can start deciphering it. We also agreed to be siblings for now if anyone asks. We’re going to try and branch out soon.

---

CCN and I agreed to contact fu. He appears to be clean. He sent me a screenshot of his role as veteran very quickly. I’ve reciprocated my role back but convinced him that CCN is townie. We can’t let mafia know who CCN is just yet and fu might tell someone. A veteran will be good because we can have him post clues about various things.

---

Contacted by Danielle. I think her and blue are siblings based on earlier comments in the thread. I guess I was mistaken though. She just sent me a pm saying oracle. She said blue is jack. That super sucks as he's a moron. At least she’ll tell him what to do. Danielle is very scared by CCN so I had him send me another screenshot with time stamp. I am pretty sure he is clear – but I’m not sure why CCN lied to her and told her Zoe is Oracle. Anyway I’ve now finished my mafia statistical software. I’ve run a linear discriminant analysis on the current posts vs last game and I’ve concluded that york smushface, and potentially sinstar have a high probability of being mafia based on the changes in various variables I have recorded. I feel like lamster is probably mafia because that would be fitting for goose to do that. Kuja is most likely mafia too. He’s being far too nice in my eyes.

---

Danielle has obtained proof that kuja is townie. I’m stunned. I have requested additional proof and kuja gave it to me. My posts against kuja are now being deleted. I think that might make mafia suspect something but hopefully they’ll think I found out kuja was detective or a blue. If they try and kill him then at least we only lose a townie instead of a blue. Kuja has told me that pieface is watcher. I can see that. Conversations with pieface seem pretty legit. I’ll eventually tell him my role once I can do a screenshot exchange with him.

---

CCN got his clue consisting of sour cream. How the hell does that relate to anyone? Is it greek because of you maybe put sour cream on gyro’s? That’s what CCN thinks. I think it might be mintz because he lists he’s jewish in his profile and sour cream is commonly put on latkes. That seems like a contorted enough clue.

---

Informed that mintz is really the weak medic by danielle. CCN was told greek isn’t mafia head goon and has confirmed him as medic. That works pretty well for us lol. Still no lead on mafia though. At least weak medic is on me tonight. Kuja says GGQ is detective. Unsure on that but GGQ did confront kuja saying he detectived him and that kuja was clear. That seems reasonable enough to me.

---

Kuja claims lamster is clear. Lamster claims to have deleted his pm and had them send him another one. That seems super sketchy. Not sure why kuja believes him. Kuja told lamster the clue to the mafia head boss. At the very least that would mean mafia know that ninja assassin is in our group. It would be great if lamster was in townie but I can’t see goose and woken allowing him to have such a trivial role. I wonder if O.o is mafia with lam or if he’s clear? Need to find out some more information

---

I forgot to write down in the diary that I was informed apa and shmo and robin and andy are siblings. I don’t remember when I was informed of this but they’re on my list. Danielle has been compiling a list as well. Danielle thinks that aggie is clear along with a couple other people.

---

Just messaged Goose to make sure that mafia was not sent all the roles. He responded that at the beginning of the game they were. That’s so moronic. Him and Woken both said that wasn’t the case when I asked. This entire alliance could now be void. How stupid. I=asjkdldaskjhdkqw

---

Ok update. Turns out it wasn’t sent out at the beginning of the game and I was lied to by goose because people were cheating by screen sharing. The roles are safe. This leaves me with the list of:
Andy and Robin are siblings
Shmo and Apa are siblings
Mled, Kuja, and Aggie are townies
Danielle is oracle
CCN is ninja assassin
Pieface is watcher
FU is veteran
I’m vigilante
Blue is Jack of all trades
GGQ is detective
Mintz is Weak Medic
Greek is medic

Last edited by mikesol; 11-04-2010 at 01:05 AM.
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  #2  
Old 11-04-2010, 12:00 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Just talked to goose. He gave me permission to create a fake forum account to use to send pm’s out. I made the invisible account through the use of ip hiding proxies and had it change every hour just in case a trace was run. I’m drafting a message to send out to the town. I’ll send it out in the morning. Here is my message:

greetings fellow townsfolk. i have been doing much coordination in the background and i believe it's time to get this show on the road. we all need each other in order to stay alive. below you will find a list of all the townspeople i know of as well as all the mafia that i am suspect of. you will also find the ninja assassin's clue to the godfather that i would love some help solving (although i am not the ninja assassin).

b4 going any further, i have already asked goose if i could use this account - to which he responded yes. i did not want to accidentally cheat and have made absolute sure this is not.

here are people i strongly believe are townies (all of which will get this e-mail):
* Robin
* Greek
* Blue
* [Y]
* Aggie
* Mintz
* Andy
* CCN
* GGQ
* Pieface
* Apa
* Mikesol
* Danielle
* Kuja
* Mled
* Shmo

Here are people I strongly believe are mafia based on analysis of their posts:
* Stalin - originally agreed to send screenshot but later decided not to. now claims he deleted it and got a new one.
* Smushface - also very unlike last game. not doing much to help the town. being very sketchy. does not want to talk about anything.
* York - is unusually quiet and jumps on bandwagons galore. very unlike last game where he was a townie.
* Lamster - claims to have deleted his pm and got another pm at the time when the new mafia pm's were going out.

Here are people I am unsure about trusting but who probably are townies:
* Ajuk
* Queen Zoe
* Gustav

Here is someone who is supposedly a vet but who i have no idea about:
* O.o

Here is the ninja assassin's clue (yes it's really just that):
* Sour cream


If you have any ideas about the clue please send them back to this account. Also, if you have any ideas or people you feel are safe - please send them this way.

I will send out more messages in the upcoming days if I remain alive after the first night is over. We need to coordinate ourselves to try and make sure we do not kill anymore townies. We also need to start playing the mafia and watch for those people who start targeting people in this group. With nearly 20 confirmed townies and nearly 4 confirmed mafia we are doing fairly well so far.

Let's not lose that lead!

Invisible out

---

I sent the message out. I probably shouldn’t have sent it to blue and I’ll make sure not to send it to him later on. For now everything is fine. Some people are suspicious of me but I need to play it safe. I will definitely survive the night because I have weak medic protection.

---

CCN and I have hatched a master plan to get mafia names. I’m going to contact york and play off that CCN is silencer. CCN is going to try and convince york he is using fake quotes. Wow this is insane. I can’t believe this is working after last game. CCN has gathered that smush is 100% confirmed as head boss. I was nearly positive of this by now but this confirms it. He’s also confirmed as mafia. So now we have york and smush confirmed as mafia (with skepticism on lam and stalin). I’m going to send a message out to the town informing them of this:

greetings townies,

while you've been away much has been done. the fake silencer role has been pulled successfully on york (or so we think). york has admitted that smushface is mafia head goon (any ideas how that relates to sour cream?) york has also confirmed he is mafia. below you will see snippits of the conversation between the fake silencer and york. some parts have been edited out to protect the identity of the fake silencer and of me.

You whisper to IL|YorK14k: i don't need to vote for you
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: to kill you
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: i still have my night action
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: if ur not mafia what do you claim
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: if u are arrange the meet
IL|YorK14k whispers: look
IL|YorK14k whispers: heres the options
IL|YorK14k whispers: 1) i arragne the meet then you know im maf
IL|YorK14k whispers: 2) i dont and i die
IL|YorK14k whispers: so either way
IL|YorK14k whispers: id be out
IL|YorK14k whispers: problem is
IL|YorK14k whispers: im not maf
IL|YorK14k whispers: i cant do it
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: if u arrange the meet
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: this conversation never happened
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: its up to someone else to suss out ur mafia
IL|YorK14k whispers: ok
IL|YorK14k whispers: how about this
IL|YorK14k whispers: right this in this chat
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: right
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: this in the chat
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: done
IL|YorK14k whispers: "I am the silencer"
IL|YorK14k whispers: write it
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: so you can poast it
IL|YorK14k whispers: ill screeny that
IL|YorK14k whispers: no
IL|YorK14k whispers: as leverage
IL|YorK14k whispers: if you call me out on being maf
IL|YorK14k whispers: ill call you out on being silencer
IL|YorK14k whispers: we either both ge scrwed
IL|YorK14k whispers: or neither
...
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: i know you guys hit me
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: but i had weak medic protection
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: *strong medic
IL|YorK14k whispers: any proof on that?
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: i won't be dead in the morning
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: thats pretty good proof
IL|YorK14k whispers: when does morning come?
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: ask goose
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: but i want this done now
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: because i work in a different time zone
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: i.e. asian
...
IL|YorK14k whispers: reason
IL|YorK14k whispers: i post that u silencer
IL|YorK14k whispers: the town loves me
IL|YorK14k whispers: i proof im not mafia
IL|YorK14k whispers: so
IL|YorK14k whispers: yea
IL|YorK14k whispers: nows it in ur hans
IL|YorK14k whispers: im winning no matter what
IL|YorK14k whispers: you wanna win with me
IL|YorK14k whispers: ?
IL|YorK14k whispers: basically you tell me the truth
IL|YorK14k whispers: ill let you think about it
...
IL|YorK14k whispers: ill send you my PM
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: kk gd gd
IL|YorK14k whispers: so u know im not blackmailing u
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: ty
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: that makes me feel safer
this part seems sketchy:
IL|YorK14k whispers: on second thought
IL|YorK14k whispers: FU
IL|YorK14k whispers: was in my class
IL|YorK14k whispers: and i deleted it
IL|YorK14k whispers: you gotta beleive me
IL|YorK14k whispers: he wanted to see my role
IL|YorK14k whispers: irl

IL|YorK14k whispers: i couldnt
IL|YorK14k whispers: cuz im maf
...
IL|YorK14k whispers: chekc ur PM
IL|YorK14k whispers: box
IL|YorK14k whispers: it says the god father in that
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: i did
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: the pm doesn't
IL|YorK14k whispers: it doesnt say who i sent it ot
IL|YorK14k whispers: to*
IL|YorK14k whispers: originally?
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: i forwarded it to you again
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: so you can check what u sent me
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: >_>
IL|YorK14k whispers: smush
IL|YorK14k whispers: ty
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: ergh i don't have smush friended
IL|YorK14k whispers: me either
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: tell him to pm me
IL|YorK14k whispers: he isnt online
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: when he wants to discuss
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: the extra hit we get
You whisper to IL|YorK14k: this night
You whisper to IL|YorK14k:

Last edited by mikesol; 11-04-2010 at 12:03 AM.
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  #3  
Old 11-04-2010, 12:00 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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CCN has now managed to infiltrate stalin with the information from york. Stalin has admitted to being suicide bomber. I already was nearly positive of him being mafia but this is definitely good news. If we terminate suicide bomber then we don’t have as much to worry about tonight. Stalin gave up that lamster and gumbly are mafia as well. We now know 5/9 mafia. I really suspect sinstar but I don’t have much to go on other than the fact he’s not been active. If he is that’s 6/9. I’m going to try and send out another message to the townies.

sorry for the massive amount of pm's but there's another update.

fake silencer managed to talk to stalin and confirm stalin's role as suicide bomber. we absolutely need to try to take out stalin during lynch.

fake silencer also got the information that lamster and gumbly are also mafia. this provides us with conflicting information on lamster.

why would york pretend to be paranoid by lamster yet another mafia would say that? I guess we will have to wait to see what detective gets on lamster.

mafia head goon (smush) is now mad at york and stalin for giving away information supposedly. fake silencer might be killed which is bad cause fake silencer is ninja assassin.

for now - we should focus on lynching the suicide bomber.

Invisible

---

Using this Invisible character I have received proof that gustav is martyr as well as queen zoe and ajuk are clear. This adds to the list of growing townsfolk we can trust. We just need to find out how a clue relates to stalin so that we can take him out. I’m going to work hard on that. Incidentally many people have offered how sour cream relates to smushface – notably pieface.

---

Wow I can’t believe blue. How stupid do you have to be? He literally just sent out my message with the list of coordinated townies to the mafia… This is disgusting. Whatever – we can recover from it. Maybe I should just use my vigilante powers to kill him… On a side note – lamster has now logged on to his altitudeforumadmin account. I wonder if he’ll be able to trace me. I’ve cut the connection but it’s possible he might figure out something I haven’t thought of.

---

This is where the diary stops. From here lots of other things happened. The game is pretty much over. Mafia has given up. I’ve found out a lot of things – such as the fact ajuk and blue were feeding mafia information. I can’t believe anyone even told them anything. I don’t suppose it would have mattered because I made sure to keep them out of the loop - but other people clearly don't understand the secrecy needed for this game.

Last edited by mikesol; 11-04-2010 at 01:59 AM.
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  #4  
Old 11-04-2010, 12:10 AM
Kuja900 Kuja900 is offline
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Huh I never said lamster was clear, I said at the time he was probably clear. I never gave him any real info next to the assassin clue which was not really needed to be kept secret, he reeked of sketch behavior.
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Old 11-04-2010, 12:16 AM
MintzMachete MintzMachete is offline
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No credit to the bro that saved you :P
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  #6  
Old 11-04-2010, 12:17 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MintzMachete View Post
No credit to the bro that saved you :P
By the time I found out you saved me the game was over =(

but <3 for saving me.
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Old 11-04-2010, 12:22 AM
MintzMachete MintzMachete is offline
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Ya that's true. I knew invis was either you or kuja
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Old 11-04-2010, 12:36 AM
GGQ GGQ is offline
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I knew it was mike, he didn't write like kuja.

Would have been fun to see what would happen if the mafia hadn't given all of their info away.

On night one, the mafia only killed one person with their 3 killing power. I'm assuming they tried to kill mike and kuja, who were both protected by medics?

And what was Pieface's guess about the 'sour cream' clue? I figured sour taste = smushed face
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Old 11-04-2010, 12:42 AM
Kuja900 Kuja900 is offline
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I had instructed in private greek to protect me and mintz to protect mike. I think one of their hits were on ccn who's role has 2 lives. Also pm was obviously mike, he should have let me write it since I was intrinsically less valuable as a towny and I would rather me be pinned as invis then him.
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  #10  
Old 11-04-2010, 12:42 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGQ View Post
I knew it was mike, he didn't write like kuja.

Would have been fun to see what would happen if the mafia hadn't given all of their info away.

On night one, the mafia only killed one person with their 3 killing power. I'm assuming they tried to kill mike and kuja, who were both protected by medics?

And what was Pieface's guess about the 'sour cream' clue? I figured sour taste = smushed face
I purposely tried to write differently then I normally did. Guess it wasn't as obvious enough.

Weak medic protected me. Mafia also hit CCN who was inigo montoya. That's how mafia only killed one.

Pieface found this wikipedia article about how sour cream is used to clear wrinkles on the face and it had like a smush face thing. He also thought about like sour = smushing your face.
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Old 11-04-2010, 12:59 AM
Pieface Pieface is offline
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Yeah mike, it was pretty easy to tell from the writing style that it was you. Oh and by the way, that bit about writing a post-analysis program to help you make educated choices - wow. From the very start of the game you already had a huge advantage, and it will only improve with the next one. D: I'm scared.

The pointer I had that connected the "sour cream" clue to Smushface was found here:
http://www.wikihow.com/Wear-a-Sour-Cream-Face-Mask

First result when searching for "sour cream face," and it pretty clearly refers to "Sour Cream face masks" helping to make your face "smoother" and prevent "uneven bloating." Of course, by that time it was pretty much confirmed that Smush was the Godfather anyway.
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Old 11-04-2010, 01:14 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pieface View Post
Yeah mike, it was pretty easy to tell from the writing style that it was you. Oh and by the way, that bit about writing a post-analysis program to help you make educated choices - wow. From the very start of the game you already had a huge advantage, and it will only improve with the next one. D: I'm scared.

The pointer I had that connected the "sour cream" clue to Smushface was found here:
http://www.wikihow.com/Wear-a-Sour-Cream-Face-Mask

First result when searching for "sour cream face," and it pretty clearly refers to "Sour Cream face masks" helping to make your face "smoother" and prevent "uneven bloating." Of course, by that time it was pretty much confirmed that Smush was the Godfather anyway.
I don't plan on playing for a long long time. Nor do I intend on spending another 8 hours collecting all the data from this game. I literally have to go through each and every post counting the information on it and filing it in my excel spreadsheet. It was something I was willing to do once but I don't intend on doing this again. At least I've identified common traits of mafia though
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Old 11-04-2010, 01:30 AM
andy andy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesol View Post
I don't plan on playing for a long long time. Nor do I intend on spending another 8 hours collecting all the data from this game. I literally have to go through each and every post counting the information on it and filing it in my excel spreadsheet. It was something I was willing to do once but I don't intend on doing this again. At least I've identified common traits of mafia though
how did you sort out info from posts into different categories?
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Old 11-04-2010, 01:32 AM
Smushface Smushface is offline
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(This is the e-mail I sent to the mafia members in our google group)
Alright, brace yourself for a long e-mail. I'll highlight the important parts in bold if you just want to get the main points and skim the reasoning.

I've been doing a lot of thinking about what we have to do to win and what our overarching strategy should be. I briefly touched upon this in an earlier PM and this e-mail will have a similar theme, just be more in-depth and better explained.

The first thing we need to think about for our strategy is timing aka in how many days will a victor be established. There's 50 players total. In phase 1 (day + night = phase), we can expect 5 people to die (1 lynch, 3 mafia kills, 1 serial kill). In phase 2 and 3, we can expect this number to go up considerably (vigilante kill, jack kill, serial killer, mafia kills, mad bombers, sibling suicides, ninja assasin) to about 8 or even 9 dead in a single phase. As the game goes on, #kills / night will recede a bit as powers are used up and mafia are thinned out, and a reasonable estimate will say there will be at least an average of 7 kills / phase. 50 players / 7 dead per phase puts the game at a little bit over 7 phases. There is of course, a margin of error, but I feel like this is the number we should be working with for the maximum number of phases for this game.

So there's a maximum of 7 phases. All we need to win this game is to at any point, outnumber the town. Which means that we most likely will not be playing to the maximum number of phases so for a mafia victory condition, we can expect this game to be done in 5 or 6 days.

This really is not that many phases. Which means we need to adjust our strategy accordingly.

Which is why I believe we should pursue an all out, aggressive strategy in order to quickly gain the upper hand in the early phases of the game. This means that we should be making most of our moves in the first 2 or 3 phases and leave the last 2 or 3 phases for picking off the sheep. I'll go into further detail and at the same time, get to use a fun little analogy.

Phase 1: 1938, Nazi Germany Annexes Austria, Sudetenland, and Czechoslovakia
Right now the town is in chaos, don't know who to trust while we are organized, in communication and setting up our long-term strategy. We (the mafia and yes, Nazi Germany) are planting chaos, gaining ground, quietly picking out our targets and making our kills.

Phase 2: 1939, The Invasion of Poland.
Blitz****ingkrieg. We need to maximize damage. Shock and awe. Take some risks. Our goal by the end of this phase is to have the town disorganized, under 30, even if it means losing a few mafia. We find out who the medic is most likely protecting and we suicide bomber that guy. This will most likely be the decisive battle of the game. We need to do everything possible we get 4+ high priority kills this night. Danielle, Kuja, Apathy, o.O, and anyone else who emerges.

The timing of this is incredibly important. We need to disrupt the organized townies ASAP. By night 2, more and more of them will have banded together which means that they can a) organize their strategy and b) use process of elimination to figure out our identities. Also, on night 2, the killing powers of the Vigilante, Jack, and the Mad Hatter all come into play and they will all be gunning for us.

Phase 3: 1940-42, On the Steps of Stalingrad and In the Skies over Great Britain
Hopefully by this time, the town will be beaten back. They will still have considerable defenses, but the biggest barriers to our victory will be removed. We just have to make sure that we stay strong, play smart, and kill any other high priority targets.

Phase 4: 1943, Normandy
This is Normandy because if we do not overwhelmingly have the upper hand by this point in time, the game is very likely lost.

Phase 5: The Rise of he German Empire
Victory is eminent.

I cannot stress enough how quickly and aggressively we need to act. The more phases go on, the more data the town collects, the more they organize, the more powers they get to use, the less townies we have to hide behind, the closer the ninja assassin gets to killing me, etc. etc. We need to be in the clear lead by the end of phase 3 if not phase 2.

One last thing. If any one of us gets revealed and/or are on the verge of being killed, we can turn that to our advantage. This is what you do.
1) Post in the Mafia thread and say "Fine, you got me. I'm mafia. When I die and my name turns out to be red, will the silencer please PM ( a 3rd party altitude forum account that we will create in case this happens) with both a screenshot of your role and a picture of your monitor that displays the PM of your role."
2) This is awesome because it abuses the same loophole that Kuja wrote to his advantage. If anyone calls you out for cheating, ask them to point out where it is illegal in the rules (spoiler: nowhere).
3) Then one of us will log onto that account and check out the PMs. It is likely that we will get some fake PMs and screenshots, so we will then ask everyone that responds to "To prove that you're silencer, Silence X tonight. If X happens to die tonight, silence Y at your next opportunity).
4) He listens.
5) Boom, we just discovered silencer.

So again, our strategy is going to have be tweaked with day to day developments but I think the idea of timing is pretty crucial. Please, give me your thoughts and some feedback, whether it be minor changes to my entire strategy is stupid. I enjoy bouncing ideas around. I promise I won't have my goons beat you with a baseball bat and buried half-alive.

-Smush
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  #15  
Old 11-04-2010, 01:35 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Quote:
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how did you sort out info from posts into different categories?
What do you mean? Here's what I did:

1) I got the list of all player roles from last game and made a variable called group. 1 = townie, 2 = mafia, 3 = blue.

2) I made an excel sheet with the names of all the players.

3) I went through post by post filling out the information from each post into my table.

4) I ran some statistical tests on the data and created a model to be used for future games.

5) I went through this game's posts and compared how they are doing with each of the variables compared to last game. I noted any discrepancies and combined that with my model to guess who would be safe and who would not be.
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Old 11-04-2010, 01:45 AM
andy andy is offline
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point 3 and 4 sound quite obscure since were talking about actual forum posts (so theyres lots of stuff you could consider) so did you just consider actual content or were you more about quantity posted and frequency of posts?
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Old 11-04-2010, 01:49 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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point 3 and 4 sound quite obscure since were talking about actual forum posts (so theyres lots of stuff you could consider) so did you just consider actual content or were you more about quantity posted and frequency of posts?
I used these variables:

* Number of posts per day in the game.
* Number of total posts
* Number of times a player accused a player already accused by someone else
* Number of times a player accused a player not already accused
* Average length of their posts
* Number of times they changed their vote
* Order in which each night they voted.

So like - I would look at post one. See person x posted something. I count the length of lines in their post and write that down. I increase their post count by one. If they accuse someone I write down that person x was accused and so forth.
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Old 11-04-2010, 01:54 AM
QUEEN ZOE QUEEN ZOE is offline
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Don't post your mafia secrets Mike! Sell them. You need a business plan
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Old 11-04-2010, 01:57 AM
Loli.ta Loli.ta is offline
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I like the part where you called Blue stupid. +1
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  #20  
Old 11-04-2010, 01:58 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Originally Posted by QUEEN ZOE View Post
Don't post your mafia secrets Mike! Sell them. You need a business plan
I'm a big free software guy. For now all of the things I do or the programs I write are completely free. I'm sure this will have to change once I get out into the real world and finish graduate school - but for now I'm good with this

I'm hoping by reading this people will learn how to play better in future games and realize just how secretive they need to be. Look at me - I was insanely secretive with multiple accounts and other things and I still got leaked by morons.

With that being said - I'm not going to simply give out my model or my program. I don't think it would be reasonable. If people wish to do their own I'd be more than happy to discuss it with them - but for now that'll remain under wraps!
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Old 11-04-2010, 02:10 AM
MintzMachete MintzMachete is offline
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mike in my opinion you were the best player in that game.

And I am pro in em so that's saying ****.
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Old 11-04-2010, 02:17 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MintzMachete View Post
mike in my opinion you were the best player in that game.

And I am pro in em so that's saying ****.
I greatly appreciate it mintz. I do think it was partly luck though - I could have made any number of errors throughout that whole process and I'm fortunate that people like kuja, ccn, and danielle really were not mafia. It definitely was a blast and thanks again for saving me
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Old 11-04-2010, 02:31 AM
MintzMachete MintzMachete is offline
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any time. it was the right move from town perspective. and also you need to get your ass on em.
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  #24  
Old 11-04-2010, 04:01 AM
GGQ GGQ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesol View Post
I purposely tried to write differently then I normally did. Guess it wasn't as obvious enough.
For reference, the line that tipped me off was this one:
"b4 going any further, i have already asked goose if i could use this account - to which he responded yes. i did not want to accidentally cheat and have made absolute sure this is not"

Of the three people that I thought were organised enough to be Invisible, I thought you were the only one who would do that
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Old 11-04-2010, 04:14 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGQ View Post
For reference, the line that tipped me off was this one:
"b4 going any further, i have already asked goose if i could use this account - to which he responded yes. i did not want to accidentally cheat and have made absolute sure this is not"

Of the three people that I thought were organised enough to be Invisible, I thought you were the only one who would do that
ya *sigh* i put that in exactly so blue wouldn't do what he idiotically did.... I didn't want people sending it out to other people asking if this was ok or not. not sure how i could have been any more clear.
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Old 11-04-2010, 05:27 AM
lamster lamster is offline
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Very well played (and very interesting approach using LDA!), though the ease with which blue roles were confirmed before a single night definitely confirms that a rule change is needed.

For the record, mafia had already decided to forfeit when I read the PM from Blue where he inexplicably revealed all your info (and it just confirmed that townie organization was so extensive that mafia had 0 chance after the Silencer leaks). I logged in the admin account to see whether evilarsenal was cheating (he threatened to "play from beyond the grave" if I got him lynched, though I think he was bluffing). After confirming that the IP did not match him, I didn't look any farther.

Last edited by lamster; 11-04-2010 at 05:48 AM.
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  #27  
Old 11-04-2010, 05:57 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamster View Post
Very well played (and very interesting approach using LDA!), though the ease with which blue roles were confirmed before a single night definitely confirms that a rule change is needed.

For the record, mafia had already decided to forfeit when I read the PM from Blue where he inexplicably revealed all your info (and it just confirmed that townie organization was so extensive that mafia had 0 chance after the Silencer leaks). I logged in the admin account to see whether evilarsenal was cheating (he threatened to "play from beyond the grave" if I got him lynched, though I think he was bluffing). After confirming that the IP did not match him, I didn't look any farther.
Ya that makes sense. By the time day 2 was even announced I figured the game was over. As far as IP stuff - I'm specializing in computer security - therefore I'm always a freak about those types of things and was watching carefully to see who was looking at what.

I still can't believe it went over as easy as that. Like it just seemed too good to be true that all of these people I met were blue right off the bat. Like of the first 10 people I talked to only 2 were townie and the other 8 were significant blues.
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  #28  
Old 11-04-2010, 06:01 AM
Kuja900 Kuja900 is offline
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I was shocked as well how many blues we found that quickly. Independently I found ggq, pieface, and O.o but then when I got in touch with danielle I learned she had every other blue role except for the tracker, medic, martyrs found.
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  #29  
Old 11-04-2010, 07:50 AM
CCN CCN is offline
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smush any chance you can update what else ou told them i.e how you selected kills, this has been very interesting!
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  #30  
Old 11-04-2010, 08:48 AM
Premier Stalin Premier Stalin is offline
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We selected targets based on who was the most intelligent/knew how to play mafia/ likely to be organised, and who had not posted alot, and so would probably not have medical on them.
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  #31  
Old 11-04-2010, 11:21 AM
andy andy is offline
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Smush told me you had a list of 7 names it would be cool to know who they were.
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  #32  
Old 11-04-2010, 02:08 PM
evilarsenal evilarsenal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamster View Post
Very well played (and very interesting approach using LDA!), though the ease with which blue roles were confirmed before a single night definitely confirms that a rule change is needed.

For the record, mafia had already decided to forfeit when I read the PM from Blue where he inexplicably revealed all your info (and it just confirmed that townie organization was so extensive that mafia had 0 chance after the Silencer leaks). I logged in the admin account to see whether evilarsenal was cheating (he threatened to "play from beyond the grave" if I got him lynched, though I think he was bluffing). After confirming that the IP did not match him, I didn't look any farther.
i have 4 different ip's i can connect to -_-

but i wouldn't cheat and yar i was bluffing,

i also like how mike spent so much time on nothing, wasted talent is the worst thing in life :[

Last edited by evilarsenal; 11-04-2010 at 02:17 PM.
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  #33  
Old 11-04-2010, 04:11 PM
CCN CCN is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesol View Post

---

Wow I can’t believe blue. How stupid do you have to be? He literally just sent out my message with the list of coordinated townies to the mafia… This is disgusting. Whatever – we can recover from it. Maybe I should just use my vigilante powers to kill him… On a side note – lamster has now logged on to his altitudeforumadmin account. I wonder if he’ll be able to trace me. I’ve cut the connection but it’s possible he might figure out something I haven’t thought of.

---

This is where the diary stops. From here lots of other things happened. The game is pretty much over. Mafia has given up. I’ve found out a lot of things – such as the fact ajuk and blue were feeding mafia information. I can’t believe anyone even told them anything. I don’t suppose it would have mattered because I made sure to keep them out of the loop - but other people clearly don't understand the secrecy needed for this game.
whaaat?...............
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  #34  
Old 11-04-2010, 04:29 PM
gumbyy gumbyy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CCN View Post
smush any chance you can update what else ou told them i.e how you selected kills, this has been very interesting!
I have the records from our Google Group but I'm gonna have to go through and take out personal info before I can post it. Maybe later tonight.
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  #35  
Old 11-04-2010, 05:08 PM
Stormich Stormich is offline
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Ajuk and Blue, the trolls that just keep on trolling, I can't believe they're still alive and kicking in the forums
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  #36  
Old 11-04-2010, 07:16 PM
Smushface Smushface is offline
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(This is the first PM I sent out. Check out #1)

Hey boys and girls. I figure that if we want to win, we need to be in touch and have a coordinated overarching strategy. Couple thoughts.

1) Do not give a list of mafia to anyone, even if they claim to be silencer. We can eventually find silencer in the mid-late game if they’re smart enough to play their role right.

2) If someone asks you what your role is, say something like I don’t trust you enough. If you feel that you absolutely have to say a role, go with a role that has more than 1 person. Town is the safest, but roles like Veteran works too. Also, let other mafia players know what role you’re pretending to be, just so there’s no major overlap.

3) Our priority kills for days 1 and 2 should be the “leaders” of Altitude. These are the people who are the most likely to organize, communicate, and correctly figure out our identities. Basic idea, we cut off the head, kill the animal. We might have to alter this based on who we think the medics are protecting, but we’ll deal with that when it comes up.

4) Split votes. We don’t want to be caught by the detective / jack by voting all for the same person. So make sure that you play off other mafia.

5) We need to be fairly active. Waiting to vote right at the end is pretty suspicious. We should be doing a good mix of fake trail laying, bandwagon jumping, actual clue solving (to throw off suspicion), etc.

6) Act natural. Don’t give yourself away by acting suspicious in either direction of the spectrum. For those of you who have played previous mafia games, go back and read how you post for a sense of how you write when you’re a townie.

7) Since apparently Kuja is checking how long people are spending in the PM section of forums (and doing it poorly), it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to write longer messages in like a word file and then copy and pasting it over.

8) Cheers, gonna be a fun game. If we play this smart in the early game, we should be able to wrap up this game within a few phases.
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  #37  
Old 11-04-2010, 07:18 PM
Smushface Smushface is offline
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What's the program people use to log chats. I have some hilarious conversations about mafia that I would like to post and regret not having a chat logger.
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  #38  
Old 11-04-2010, 07:20 PM
Kuja900 Kuja900 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smushface View Post
(This is the first PM I sent out. Check out #1)

Hey boys and girls. I figure that if we want to win, we need to be in touch and have a coordinated overarching strategy. Couple thoughts.

1) Do not give a list of mafia to anyone, even if they claim to be silencer. We can eventually find silencer in the mid-late game if they’re smart enough to play their role right.

2) If someone asks you what your role is, say something like I don’t trust you enough. If you feel that you absolutely have to say a role, go with a role that has more than 1 person. Town is the safest, but roles like Veteran works too. Also, let other mafia players know what role you’re pretending to be, just so there’s no major overlap.

3) Our priority kills for days 1 and 2 should be the “leaders” of Altitude. These are the people who are the most likely to organize, communicate, and correctly figure out our identities. Basic idea, we cut off the head, kill the animal. We might have to alter this based on who we think the medics are protecting, but we’ll deal with that when it comes up.

4) Split votes. We don’t want to be caught by the detective / jack by voting all for the same person. So make sure that you play off other mafia.

5) We need to be fairly active. Waiting to vote right at the end is pretty suspicious. We should be doing a good mix of fake trail laying, bandwagon jumping, actual clue solving (to throw off suspicion), etc.

6) Act natural. Don’t give yourself away by acting suspicious in either direction of the spectrum. For those of you who have played previous mafia games, go back and read how you post for a sense of how you write when you’re a townie.

7) Since apparently Kuja is checking how long people are spending in the PM section of forums (and doing it poorly), it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to write longer messages in like a word file and then copy and pasting it over.

8) Cheers, gonna be a fun game. If we play this smart in the early game, we should be able to wrap up this game within a few phases.
Oh lordy that being the first thing you said in your pm makes it all the more hilarious.
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  #39  
Old 11-05-2010, 04:59 AM
gumbyy gumbyy is offline
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All the more hilarious...and all the more sad.
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  #40  
Old 11-05-2010, 11:33 AM
Danielle Danielle is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smushface View Post
What's the program people use to log chats. I have some hilarious conversations about mafia that I would like to post and regret not having a chat logger.
In game? It's automatically saved..
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