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  #1  
Old 11-08-2010, 03:48 AM
Evan20000 Evan20000 is offline
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Default Mafia analysis

Just leaving this here for easy reference/discussion. Nobody wants to dig through several pages of me ruffling Kuja's feathers with silly banter just to find this, especially when this is more or less the base of my argument. A mod can delete/lock this after this day phase has passed.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
All of you people's clue solving is based off no precedents. Never in the history of mafia has a clan tag or favorite youtube video been a clue. Might I ask how I am playing shady? I am posting public clue solving and disputing evidence I find to be weak.
Ok then. I will lay out my case against you before I likely die tonight. While this is nowhere near as elegant as Mike's analysis, I believe this should be enough.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
I request the detective to use his powers on me so that we may work together.
While this alone isn't incriminating, you don't give the detective a reason to trust you. This could be interpreted as a ploy to use the Godfather's ability to gain the towns trust. Not incriminating on its own, but....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
I would also like the cop to check me so we can work together as well, or check smushface. To prove yourself to me pm me with what my role is.
Now, I know you're smart enough to know that having the detective and cop target you is a misallocation of resources the town could use. At this point, I would peg you for a selfish townie or the godfather. You seem rather sure the framer isn't going to target you, leading me to believe the latter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
I just checked over the roles and because of the framer I am going to ask the detective and the cop to check either me OR smush OR danielle.
I think you anticipated my last point here and are trying to "confuse" the framer. However, one of them still has to target you or else they had no reason to trust you to begin with. This is under the assumption that the cop and detective have identified each other this early. If neither one knew who the other was, it would be unsafe for you to think that they would trust the other to investigate you. This, again, leads me to think you are the Godfather.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
You have a 1/30 chance of hitting the godfather, its a risk one has to take. Oh and I am the veteran.
This struck me as odd when you first posted it. However, now I think I understand why you did this; you're trying to prevent yourself getting killed in the night to "confirm" your role for you. This is a solid strategy because if someone investigates you and sees that you are NOT veteran, then it becomes a case of your word against theirs. Additionally, the cop/detective that investigated you is forced to claim, thus drawing him into the open for the mafia.

DAY 1: I think we've beaten this clue to death, so I won't elaborate on this any further. While you were very quick to hop bandwagons in Day 1 (And quickly reversed as GGQ pointed out), I don't see anything here being absolute evidence because of the vast number of interpretations of the clue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
Or she'd logically conclude you would think that and not hop on the bandwagon which has been frequently used to peg possible mafia members lately. If we do not lynch loli now we probably will not have any more evidence to do so, as we will be busy with the night 2 clues, until night 3 or 4.
Reinforcing your bandwagon with this... interesting evidence. Loli is a smart person, but I don't think she is a manipulative reverse-psychologist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
Woken acted very suspiciously when I was discussing my clue solving in relation to lolita btw.
With the hindsight knowledge that Woken was the amnesiac, it really does look like you are simply firing in the dark here...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
We got lucky, the clue solving for aggie was poor and people need to be more careful about hopping on **** bandwagons.
You fail to note that Aggie never committed a night hit, and therefore wasn't part of the clue. We both know this was a lucky lynch and you're trying to discredit the other bandwagons with it when yours was founded on questionable evidence at best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Evan20000 View Post
Detective, please PM me.
At this point, I suspect you are NOT the veteran you claim to be. However, given that the detective has no reason to trust me, I was not shocked when nobody PM'd me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
Medic on me please.
So I was right...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
Detective do not use your "ask role" power on suspected mafia. Use it on players that you want to work with, its more important that you form a player alliance as it is no good to know who a mafia member is but have no support or grounds to get them lynched.
This is an empty argument. If a detective or cop PM'd you, you would have an opportunity to kill them before the information got out. If they claimed and had a confirmed red, you would risk hitting martyr/medic protection.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
Its not kind of cheating I see no problem posting chat logs. People need to lay off with the ban stick. Do you non mafia people really believe g00se is that stupid? Without a doubt at least one if not all of dmcm, ggq and sinstar are mafia and just got played like fiddles.
Epic scum slip as Zoe pointed out. Please note that Goose never claimed in an attempt to prove himself innocent, yet Kuja has faith Goose is what he (I'm assuming) claimed to be in PMs despite the fact that Kuja has already lied about being Vet. Also, you have no reason to support suspicious (It doesn't matter if Goose was town or maf, this was a suspicious play regardless) behavior so thoroughly without the use of cheating or if you already knew he was mafia.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
No its your fault mr mafia for being so gullible. Do you honestly believe g00se would send such info to an unverified smurf without it being deliberate?
You cannot actually try to pass this off as a calculated move on Gooses part. Goose had taken some heat day 1, his logical move would be to lie low and let people be preoccupied with the day 2 clues. Instead, he takes a random townie that he knows nothing about (I could have been the serial killer or vig for all he knew...) and does a reaction test. While this normally would have been a bad, but not suspicious play, what seals the deal here is that it is night. Goose is confident that he won't die by morning and the framer wouldn't check him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
At first I thought you were just gullible, but now I think you may be mafia. I encourage the detective and cop to check out myself and/or g00se tonight, the framer can not target us both. This was a calculated ploy to draw out mafia members who would be quick to jump on such a bandwagon, danielle can confirm.
I see what you did thar. If you get investigated, you will come off clean. If Goose gets investigated (and presumably comes up mafia), you can try to blame the silencer for choosing such an "obvious target". About the Danielle bit, she sent me a PM before she died saying that she was trying to keep their trust so she didn't die. Given that she was not claiming to be the martyr, that is a reasonable play from what I can see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
What do you mean what does he gain? He gains a suspect list from mafia members looking to hop on a false bandwagon and you landed yourself on it. You have no proof that chatlog is real and if we were mafia we would probably dispute that chat ever happened. Instead of that we are fully enforcing the fact that chatlog did happen and sin led himself and possibly several mafia members in to a trap.
You already had a list of potential mafia members from the day 1 bandwagons. However, goose himself was one of the vote targets, so as I said earlier, pulling a ploy like this is only going to get himself lynched. Either he is the hunter (I find that unlikely, because then he wouldn't be so confident the framer wouldn't get him) or he is mafia looking for an easy bandwagon. I understand the evidence here is debatable, and that is why I asked the vigi to kill me. I am banking on the 1/8 (Now that genesis is dead) chance that I am not the Miller.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
Can dodge all you want but you know full well the trap was sprung and the walls are closing in on you. If he has no power role why the **** not take risks like this? He has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
This is the first valid point I have seen. I have used the same reasoning when orchestrating this trap for mafia. However, I return to the fact that he was a suspect in day 1 and he chose his target seemingly at random. My concluding point is that Goose had completely stopped talking about mafia on mumble after that "slip" instead of gloating like someone normally would.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
You have all the reason in the world to bite. You smell a bandwagon against a target that is not mafia, why not get it rolling?
I already rebutted this, but I feel it would be better to try to maintain my own credibility at this point... If I wanted an easy bandwagon, I would have just picked one on Day 1 instead of abstaining.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
Danielle is in agreement with us you reading comprehension lacking muppet.
Lolz.

Quote:
Originally Posted by unbreak View Post
I know 100% goose isn't mafia but a regular townie. I cant tell you how i know but its true.
Given your choices side you with Kuja and Goose before this incident ever started, I would like to FoS: Unbreakable.

Day 2: You don't try to lynch me if we fell into the obvious "scum trap" you set up.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuja900 View Post
Through our conversations I am 80% sure hes town.
Given your loyalty in a game without absolutes, clearly.



tl;dr: I think Kuja, Goose, and Unbreakable are mafia.
  #2  
Old 11-08-2010, 05:18 AM
Evan20000 Evan20000 is offline
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Okay, a mod can close this now.
  #3  
Old 11-08-2010, 05:25 AM
Clapon Clapon is offline
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i lold.... hard
  #4  
Old 11-08-2010, 05:26 AM
Evan20000 Evan20000 is offline
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Why the hell would he claim to be vet and then want to have a medic be put on him? O_o
  #5  
Old 11-08-2010, 05:29 AM
Clapon Clapon is offline
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no i mean it makes sense he was very scummy but now seeing hes not mafia its quite funny! XD
  #6  
Old 11-08-2010, 05:30 AM
Evan20000 Evan20000 is offline
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I anticipated this possibility, although I have lost all credibility now so it really doesn't matter. Either way, the clue pointing towards Tyr is probably your best bet.
  #7  
Old 11-08-2010, 05:31 AM
Clapon Clapon is offline
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that or you, or dmcm.... but yeah i REALLY like the tyr evidence.
  #8  
Old 11-08-2010, 05:33 AM
Evan20000 Evan20000 is offline
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Go ahead and lynch me, it really doesn't matter at this point. I'll post what I know in the other thread and let you do what you like with it.
  #9  
Old 11-08-2010, 05:34 AM
mikesol mikesol is offline
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closed at request of thread owner.
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